Total Ink vs Novelty Yield
Scribal Saturation by Profession
When did each profession start producing more paperwork than new knowledge?
Seven modern professions, each with two lines on one 0-100 index: Total Ink (how much the profession writes) rising, Novelty Yield (how much of it is new) falling, and the Scribal Saturation Threshold, the date the two cross and commentary on commentary overtakes text about the world.
| Profession | Scribal Saturation Threshold (crossing) |
|---|---|
| Science | ~1970s |
| Finance | Early 1980s |
| Attorneys | ~1990s |
| Marketing | ~2000s |
| Journalism | ~2010s |
| Media | Mid-2020s |
| Bureaucrats | No date in the book |
Crossings as the book gives them (Ch 23, Figure 22). The book names bureaucrats as the seventh profession but gives no date for its crossing, so none is shown.
Science
Scribal Saturation Threshold: ~1970s
- Total Ink (index)
- Novelty Yield (index)
- Crossing 1975
Both lines indexed 0-100 on one axis. Crossing marked at 1975 (index 50).
Growth factor
5.6% annual growth; doubling every 12-13 years
Crossing date
~1970s
Early (1600s)
~10 journals
Current (2022)
3.3M papers/year; 47,000 journals
Total Ink metric
Scientific papers published per year
Novelty Yield evidence
18x more researchers needed to maintain Moore's Law doubling vs early 1970s. Nobel age at discovery rose over 20th century (Jones & Weinberg 2011 PNAS). Replication crisis: 36% psychology (OSC 2015); 11% preclinical cancer (Begley & Ellis 2012); 70% failed to reproduce others' work (Baker 2016).
Sources
- Bloom/Jones/Van Reenen/Webb (AER 2020)
- Jones (RES 2009)
- OSC (Science 2015)
- Begley & Ellis (Nature 2012)
- Baker (Nature 2016)
- NSF NCSES
- Hanson et al. (arXiv 2023)
Finance
Scribal Saturation Threshold: Early 1980s
- Total Ink (index)
- Novelty Yield (index)
- Crossing 1982
Both lines indexed 0-100 on one axis. Crossing marked at 1982 (index 50).
Growth factor
3.0x
Crossing date
Early 1980s
Early (1947)
2.5%
Current (2006)
7.6%
Total Ink metric
Share of GDP
Novelty Yield evidence
Share of business profits: 10% (1947) to 50% (2010). Profits decoupled from production. Derivatives of derivatives -- self-referential output.
Sources
- Philippon (NYU Stern)
- Greenwood (HBS)
- BEA value-added by industry
Attorneys
Scribal Saturation Threshold: ~1990s
- Total Ink (index)
- Novelty Yield (index)
- Crossing 1995
Both lines indexed 0-100 on one axis. Crossing marked at 1995 (index 50).
Growth factor
2.8x
Crossing date
~1990s
Early (1950)
1 per 695
Current (2025)
1 per 250
Total Ink metric
Attorneys per capita
Novelty Yield evidence
Law school enrollment peaked 2010; fell ~30% by 2015; recovered to ~18% below peak by 2025. Ratio of new statutory law to interpretive/procedural filings falling since 1980s. Law about law overtakes new law.
Sources
- ABA National Lawyer Population Survey
- LSAC enrollment data
Marketing
Scribal Saturation Threshold: ~2000s
- Total Ink (index)
- Novelty Yield (index)
- Crossing 2005
Both lines indexed 0-100 on one axis. Crossing marked at 2005 (index 50).
Growth factor
6-20x ad exposure increase
Crossing date
~2000s
Early (1970s)
~500-1600 ads/day
Current (2024)
4000-10000 ads/day; 2.5M US marketers (6M adjacent; 15M global)
Total Ink metric
Marketing professionals / ad exposures per day
Novelty Yield evidence
Novelty yield arguably zero from crossing. Writing about descriptions of products. Self-referential at every level. More people writing about products than entire literate population of medieval Europe.
Sources
- AMA/BLS employment data 2024
- Digital Silk/GoAdFuel
- Coen Dataset
Journalism
Scribal Saturation Threshold: ~2010s
- Total Ink (index)
- Novelty Yield (index)
- Crossing 2015
Both lines indexed 0-100 on one axis. Crossing marked at 2015 (index 50).
Growth factor
Newsrooms down by roughly two-thirds
Crossing date
~2010s
Early (2005)
Newsroom staff at the 2005 level
Current (today)
Roughly two-thirds of newsroom employees gone; more than 2,900 newspapers closed or merged since 2004
Total Ink metric
Newsroom employees and newspapers
Novelty Yield evidence
Local reporting is what went. Hundreds of counties are now news deserts, where no professional reporter covers any public body, and those counties saw municipal borrowing costs rise, public corruption go undetected longer, and voter participation decline. What replaced local journalism is content optimized for engagement: attention selects for outrage, not accuracy.
Sources
- The Scribe's Advantage, Ch 23 (Journalism)
Media
Scribal Saturation Threshold: Mid-2020s
- Total Ink (index)
- Novelty Yield (index)
- Crossing 2025
Both lines indexed 0-100 on one axis. Crossing marked at 2025 (index 50).
Growth factor
Content explosion; newsroom -58%
Crossing date
Mid-2020s
Early (2008)
71,000 newsroom employees
Current (2024)
<30,000 newsroom + 4.4M blog posts/day (WordPress) + 12.8M/day (Tumblr)
Total Ink metric
Newsroom employees / daily content volume
Novelty Yield evidence
Newsroom decline meets content explosion. Rewritten/aggregated/SEO text overtakes original reporting. Ad spending $19.5B (1970) to $300B+ digital (2024).
Sources
- Pew Research Center
- WordPress.com stats
- Coen Structured Ad Expenditure Dataset
- eMarketer
Bureaucrats
Scribal Saturation Threshold: No date in the book
No chart: the book gives no crossing date for this profession.
Growth factor
Pages up 71% YoY; rules at record low
Crossing date
No date in the book
Early (1970)
~60,000 pages (est.)
Current (2024)
106,109 pages; 3,248 final rules
Total Ink metric
Federal Register pages / final rules
Novelty Yield evidence
Fewer decisions; far more paper per decision. The Federal Register hit 106,109 pages in 2024 while the number of final rules fell to 3,248 (book, Ch 23). The book gives no crossing date for bureaucrats, so this page does not chart one. Headcount fell from 10.8 per 1000 to 6.0 (OPM exec-branch excl. USPS).
Sources
- OPM series excl. USPS
- Federal Register annual data