Dataset 1 of 2
Civilization Scorecard
How knowledge-keeping classes captured their societies, scored across five thousand years
Every case the book scores on the capture matrix: the rising period, the stagnation period, the three conditions that lock a scribal class in place, and the fate it met. Click a row for the evidence. Sort any column. Filter by fate.
| ▸China (Pre-1487) | 1400 BCE to 14872887 years | 5 | 1487 to 1905418 years | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | CONFIRMED | Ouroboros |
| ▸Egypt | 3100 BCE to 1070 BCE2030 years | 5 | 1070 BCE to 332 BCE738 years | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | SUGGESTIVE | Ouroboros -> Conquered |
| ▸Joseon Korea | 1392 to 1600208 years | 3 | 1600 to 1897297 years | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | STRONG | Ouroboros -> Spit Out |
| ▸Soviet Union | 1917 to 196043 years | 3 | 1960 to 199131 years | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | STRONG | Ouroboros -> Slain |
| ▸Byzantium | 330 to 1000670 years | 4 | 1000 to 1453453 years | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | STRONG | Scattered |
| ▸French Ancien Regime | 1100 to 1604504 years | 3 | 1604 to 1789185 years | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | CONFIRMED | Cave overflowed, 1789 |
| ▸Ottoman Ilmiye | 1300 to 1600300 years | 2 | 1600 to 1839239 years | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | SUGGESTIVE | Ouroboros -> Spit Out (partial) |
| ▸Spanish Empire | 1200 to 1475275 years | 2 | 1475 to 1700225 years | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 | SUGGESTIVE | Ouroboros |
| ▸Modern US University | 1876 to 197094 years | 4 | 1970 to 202656 years | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | SUGGESTIVE | Ouroboros (in progress) |
| ▸Mughal India | 1526 to 1700174 years | 2 | 1700 to 1857157 years | 1.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | SUGGESTIVE | Not scored |
| ▸Song China | 960 to 1279319 years | 4 | -- | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WEAK | Not scored |
| ▸Roman Empire | 200 BCE to 200400 years | 3 | 284 to 476192 years | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WEAK | Scattered |
| ▸Tokugawa Japan | 1603 to 1868265 years | -- | -- | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WEAK | Not scored |
| ▸Late Medieval Europe | 1150 to 1450300 years | -- | -- | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WEAK | Not scored |
| ▸Islamic World (civilization-level) | -- | -- | -- | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WEAK | Not scored |
| ▸Islamic Golden Age | 750 to 1100350 years | 4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | UNSCORED | Slain |
| ▸India (Sanskrit) | 1500 BCE to 5002000 years | 4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | UNSCORED | Not scored |
Counter-examples: where no capture formed
High rising scores with a stagnation score at or near zero. Each one had an exit: a rival city, a rival school, a rival patron.
| Case | Rising (1-5) | Stagnation (0-3) | Why no capture formed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance Italy | 3 | 0.0 | No unified credential; competitive patronage; walk to Ferrara |
| Dutch Republic | 3 | 0.0 | Federal; market-disciplined; talent immigrating in |
| Song China | 4 | 1.0 | A wise elder's machinery: the curriculum itself a living argument rather than a settled canon (Ch 9). |
| Classical Athens | 3 | 0.0 | Fragmented; competing schools; no credential monopoly |
| Phoenicia | 2 | 0.0 | Commercially distributed across competing city-states |
The six fates
1. Tail spat out
The dragon reforms itself and releases what it was hoarding: the only voluntary fate on the list (Britain, 1854).
2. Dragon slain
Something outside breaks the monopoly and kills the beast (Baghdad, 1258, in the better part of a week).
3. Dragon scattered
The cave is shattered and the hoard flows downstream to other caves, carried by survivors holding whatever they can hold (Constantinople's scholars to Italy).
4. Ouroboros
The default: the dragon choking on its own body while the cave fills with treasure nobody uses (the Ming after the bite of 1487).
5. Cave overflowed
The river of carriers rises past what the banks can seat and the cave breaks from inside without anyone burning a thing (France, 1789).
6. Cave colonized
An alien dragon moves in and replaces the hoard with its own (Cajamarca; the Rus, 1240).
Dataset 2 of 2
Four-axis stability profiles
Twenty-nine civilizations measured on four dimensions of knowledge transmission
The more granular scoring: twenty-nine civilizations on stability, surplus, carrier density (population) and scribal output, each 0-10, with the composite, the stability-to-output ratio, the capture score and the slavery score (the stolen river).
| Modern US 1945-2000 | 1945 CE to 2000 CE | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9.2 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 | Peak Compounding |
| Tang China | 618 CE to 907 CE | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8.7 | 1.00 | 0 | 5 | Peak Compounding |
| Post-WWII Germany | 1945 CE to 1990 CE | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8.5 | 0.89 | 0 | 0 | Recovery |
| Post-WWII Japan | 1945 CE to 1990 CE | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8.5 | 0.89 | 0 | 0 | Recovery |
| Song China | 960 CE to 1279 CE | 6 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8.3 | 0.60 | 0 | 4 | Explosive |
| Rome Republic-Empire | 200 BCE to 200 CE | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8.2 | 1.29 | 1 | 6 | Compounding |
| Ming China pre-1487 | 1368 CE to 1487 CE | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8.2 | 1.29 | 1 | 5 | Compounding |
| South Korea 1961-2026 | 1961 CE to 2026 CE | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8.2 | 0.89 | 0 | 1 | Recovery |
| Baghdad / Abbasid | 750 CE to 1258 CE | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8.1 | 0.70 | 0 | 5 | Compounding |
| Modern US 2000-2026 | 2000 CE to 2026 CE | 8 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 7.4 | 1.60 | 2 | 1 | Flood Warning |
| Ottoman 1453-1700 | 1453 CE to 1700 CE | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7.2 | 1.33 | 1 | 5 | Compounding |
| Mughal India | 1556 CE to 1707 CE | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7.2 | 1.17 | 1 | 7 | Compounding |
| Renaissance Italy | 1350 CE to 1550 CE | 5 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 7.1 | 0.50 | 0 | 2 | Explosive |
| Spain 1492-1700 | 1492 CE to 1700 CE | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 6.7 | 1.60 | 2 | 6 | Declining |
| Old Kingdom Egypt | 2686 BCE to 2181 BCE | 9 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6.6 | 1.50 | 1 | 3 | Compounding |
| Timbuktu | 1300 CE to 1591 CE | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 6.6 | 0.88 | 0 | 5 | Compounding |
| Ming China post-1487 | 1487 CE to 1644 CE | 9 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 6.5 | 3.00 | 3 | 4 | Flood |
| Tokugawa Japan | 1603 CE to 1868 CE | 9 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6.5 | 1.80 | 2 | 2 | Mixed |
| Athens | 480 BCE to 322 BCE | 5 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 6.2 | 0.50 | 0 | 7 | Explosive |
| Sumer | 2600 BCE to 2100 BCE | 7 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 6.1 | 0.88 | 0 | 4 | Compounding |
| Kerala | 1400 CE to 1800 CE | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6.0 | 0.86 | 0 | 3 | Compounding |
| Late Egypt / Amun | 1070 BCE to 332 BCE | 9 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 5.6 | 3.00 | 3 | 4 | Flood |
| Joseon Korea | 1392 CE to 1910 CE | 8 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5.5 | 2.00 | 3 | 3 | Flood |
| Ottoman 1700-1922 | 1700 CE to 1922 CE | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 5.4 | 2.33 | 3 | 4 | Flood |
| Rome Decline | 200 CE to 476 CE | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3.9 | 0.75 | 2 | 5 | Declining (Pandemic) |
| Tasmania | 10000 BCE to 1800 CE | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.8 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 | Collapsed |
| Post-trade W. Africa | 1600 CE to 1900 CE | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | 0.67 | 0 | 10 | Collapsed (External Slavery) |
| Dark Ages W. Europe | 500 CE to 800 CE | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2.2 | 1.00 | 0 | 3 | Collapsed (War) |
| Post-Mongol Iraq | 1258 CE to 1500 CE | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.00 | 0 | 3 | Total Collapse (War (total)) |